Another 15 wins to add to this projection seem pretty straightforward. Bringing in Nelson Cruz to be a veteran mentor was a nice touch, and Stephen Strasburg could potentially return from his Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery mid-season. It's not all bad. Thats a trickier question, given the contours of the roster. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors
A daily roundup of Atlanta Braves news from Battery Power, By submitting your email, you agree to our, FanGraphs and PECOTA projected standings for the 2022 season are here, Adam Duvall headed to the Red Sox on a one-year deal. The exercise continues this offseason. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors
The As have made a lot of improbable runs, but if they cause pain to the Astros and Mariners this year, it might be their most impressive surprise yet. Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert got their feet wet in the majors last year; now Seattle will turn to Julio Rodrguez, Matt Brash, and George Kirby to keep the youth movement going; Rodrguez and Brash made the Opening Day roster, and Kirby could soon join them. One can see here the strong position the Orioles are in if they chose to be aggressive this offseason; theyve had enough happy player development surprises that they can legitimately say they start the offseason in the same galaxy as the rest of the division. Things may get worse before they get better, however, as theres no guarantee that either Sean Murphy or Ramn Laureano starts the season with Oakland. This is actually much less complex than it sounds. This is actually much less complex than it sounds. Im always tinkering with methodology, but most of the low-hanging fruit of predicting how teams do have already been harvested. With a strong rotation led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, it finally seems like Philadelphia has assembled the talent to break their 10-year playoff drought. by Handedness, The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1124 2023 1B Rankings Preview #1, https://media.blubrry.com/rotographs/cdn-podcasts.fangraphs.com/RotoGraphs-Audio-01-09-2023.mp3, Justin Masons Baseball Chat January 9th, 2023. Whether the anti-service time manipulation rules in the new CBA influenced many teams to carry their top prospects on their Opening Day rosters is up for debate. The future is tantalizingly close but beyond our ken, and if anyone figures out how to deflect the astrophysicist Arthur Eddingtons arrow of time, its probably not going to be in the form of baseball projections. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors
I dont know exactly what that profile looks like, but Im sure the Rockies analytics department is up to the task (pause for laughter). All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Lets start with the good news first: Kansas Citys offense has several very interesting offensive players in the high minors. Its a big bet on their player development group, which could pay dividends in a couple of years. On the offensive side of things, they added Jorge Soler, Avisal Garca, Joey Wendle, and Jacob Stallings, giving them a lineup that could be good enough to support their young pitching. They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. If you were looking for ZiPS to provide some clarity, I hope you havent been waiting with bated breath too long! Hes about half of their payroll now. The exercise continues this offseason. The lineup is neither good nor particularly young, and as such, it will likely struggle to push the Marlins to be much better than the National Leagues 14th-ranked offense in runs scored, Miamis 2021 mark. The Cards (catcher, a starting pitcher) and Brewers (two outfielders) have similar levels of neediness, and this preliminary projection basically preserves their relative 2022 standing. The Blue Jays strengths are undeniable: a potent lineup that scored the third-most runs in baseball last year, and the best projected starting rotation based on our 50/50 blend of FIP and RA9. Even if they are good this year, thats still the lesson. Trent Grisham, CF; Manny Machado, 3B; Jake Cronenworth, 2B; Luke Voit, DH; Wil Myers, RF; Eric Hosmer, 1B; Austin Nola, C; Jurickson Profar, LF; Ha-Seong Kim, SS; Last season's Padres ranked 14th in both runs scored and wRC+, a catch-all metric housed at FanGraphs that adjusts for park and other variables. Olson, Chapman, Bassitt, and Manaea were all traded away this spring, and Frankie Montas will likely be sent to the highest bidder during the season. Now, I did say there was one major exception, and thats in-season roster changes. Location: Karta. Some may think it disappointing that the Mariners are still projected to win fewer games than in 2021, but exceeding Pythagorean record by 14 wins isnt something that actually has value in gauging future performance. ZiPS projects the Rockies to be better than only the Nationals, but I expect the Nats have a better idea of exactly where their team is than the Rockies do. 2022 Playoff Odds, . Any trades would be to move Rosario or one of Plesac/Civale. So what *does* Chicago have to spend? They signed Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen to round out their rotation and Ryan Tepera, Aaron Loup, and Archie Bradley to support Raisel Iglesias in the bullpen. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors
2023 Pre-Season Projections ZiPS . A man is dead after an overnight shooting in Stockton, marking the city's second homicide of the year. Lets start with how teams performed versus their projections: Teams have gotten a bit more polarized in how theyre run in-season. The Yankees entered the offseason with clear needs at shortstop and first base, and in the starting rotation and yet didnt sign any of the many big name free agents who could have filled those holes. ZiPS gave Cleveland the most prospects in its top 100 and is a fan of the Royals Bobby Witt Jr., Nick Pratto, and MJ Melendez, so both could have much more sunny prognostications in another year or two. edit: damnit, I screwed it up. Dont worry, they still have between $0M and $10M in payroll space and 1 top-100 prospect, plus a couple others in the 100-200 range that could be traded to help the roster. Theyve assembled a surprisingly competent starting rotation given their home park, but the supporting cast for whichever stars are on their roster be it Bryant, Story, or Nolan Arenado just hasnt been good enough. This starts with bullishness on the Matts. There have been very few things to celebrate in Baltimore recently Trey Mancinis comeback and Cedric Mullins 3030 season being the most recent but theyll finally start to see the foundations of their rebuild make it to the majors this year. Well update these throughout the season as more and more info gets added. ATC: ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen. Read the rest of this entry . I still wish Chicago had outbid the Rays for Nelson Cruzs services. But if they did, the Pirates clearly didnt get the memo after they sent Oneil Cruz to Triple-A to start the season despite an encouraging, and at times electrifying, spring. Uras projects to essentially repeat his 2021 season. It seems nearly certain that Marcell Ozuna will return, but from a baseball standpoint, he didnt hit at all early last year. Oops. The addition of Trevor Story to their roster gives the Red Sox three superstars on the infield with a fantastic supporting cast led by J.D. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. If you squint, you can sort of see how it could work out for them, but theyll likely come up short this season. Two of the more popular and respected projection systems - Pecota and FanGraphs - have already released their win totals for each team. Theyll get him and James Paxton back from injury sometime this summer, but until then, theyll have to hope that Michael Wacha and Rich Hill can hold up the back end of the rotation. Thats true for everyone in baseball, but the error bars for the win projections for this quintet feel particularly wide. To support those two generational talents, the Angels focused on shoring up their biggest weakness during this stretch of frustration: their pitching staff. Fangraphs mid-lockout ZiPS projections show the Nats at Fangraphs: 2022 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres, FanGraphs projected standings have Sox winning the Central. 2022 Year to Date: 2022 Projected Rest of Season: Currently viewing seasons between 2022 and 2022 We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The. The As might have had one more competitive season with their core that won nearly 60% of their games from 2018 to 20. He was the biggest addition to their club, but they also traded for Sonny Gray, Gary Snchez, and Gio Urshela, and made a last minute move for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagn. Theres enough talent on the roster to be a nuisance to the other contenders in the NL East but not enough for the Nationals to be contenders themselves. So under the current format, they make it in as the first wildcard and have to face * checks notes * Jacob DeGrom or Corbin Burnes in a 1 game playoff. The contract that Carlos Correa signed with the Twins really calls into question some of the Yankees maneuvering during the final weeks of the offseason. Which is why I doubt the $10M number. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. And then theres the Orioles. To arrive at the playoff odds, we then simulate the upcoming season 20,000 times, taking strength of schedule into account. That doesn't leave much time to handicap 2022 MLB win totals. There are a lot of Reds who ZiPS sees as having significant upside (Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Noelvi Marte), but the system doesnt see 2023 being their breakout campaigns. Yup! 2022 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves. The exercise continues this offseason. That makes it all the more baffling that the Angels havent finished a season above .500 since 2015 and have been to the playoffs just once in the last 12 years. But without their ace, their ceiling is just a bit lower. He is a Vice President of Risk Management for a large international insurance and reinsurance company. The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Soxs chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Mike Napoli. ATC further sets itself apart from other statistical aggregation methods. The Mets appear certain to drop a lot of cash this winter, but again, they need to, with Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, Brandon Nimmo, and, well, much of the bullpen all heading to the open market. The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Sox's chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. The Jays get the top place in the table with the highest divisional odds. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Ariel Cohen is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). I talked quite a lot about Francos outlook when he he signed his big ol contract extension, so I wont rehash that here. Taking home runs away in Baltimore seems like a cruel reward for fans who have been dragged through three 100-loss seasons in the last four years. ITS ANGELS TIME! Its insane. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
by Retrosheet. Heres their model for the 2022 Atlanta Braves: As you can see, FanGraphs is pretty high on the 2022 team. Read the rest of this entry . Like the Rays, the projection systems have no idea what to do with the Giants. Ariel is also the winner of the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. If you dont know, FanGraphs uses both the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for the individual inputs in their model. We get Spring Training, we get to find out whos in the best shape of their lives, we get random injuries, meaningless stats, trades and signings are still happening, a long-term extension or two, and all the hope you can stand for what might happen in the upcoming baseball season. You can divide Washingtons offense into two distinct parts. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The Rays will be the Rays, and theyll probably add two wins from random pitchers they pick up from indie leagues, but thats a bit out of ZiPS purview. New for this year, Ive opted to include defense as a component, though its weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Ariel is the 2019 FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year. Starts at 6:30 pm. Read the rest of this entry . ZiPS projects McNeil's 2023 BABIP to be .316, in line with his career average of .314, accounting for much of the batting average drop. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Lance Lynns knee injury isnt as serious as Garrett Crochets Tommy John surgery, but losing the former means Chicago will have to turn to either Vince Velasquez or Reynaldo Lpez until Johnny Cueto is ready to go. Lets look. Another large difference in playoff odds can be seen with the New York Yankees. Which team in baseball has the best middle infield? So how does it work? Despite all these new faces in Minnesota, the pitching staff still feels thin. Like the rest of the teams in this tier, the Royals are just oozing with young talent. In came Mike Minor, Tommy Pham, Solano, and a few other role players. Despite a disappointing debut in 2021 that. Not for thr names floated and not if theyre keeping Naylor. But the lineup imploded. FanGraphs simulates each season 10,000 times to generate the probabilities. Which is what the Chisox are supposed to do on $10M. Thats another reason I love FanGraphs odds because they update daily throughout the season as records and rosters change. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. bigbicepturner Wil Myers 1 yr. ago Fool me twice Can't fool me again edit: damnit, I screwed it up. The outfield depth just isnt that strong, especially with neither Cristian Pache nor Drew Waters having any kind of breakout years in Triple-A. Terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. Also gotta remember that the rest of the Central teams (especially Twins) have payroll space and prospect capital to improve if they want to, and the Sox dont. Any team led by Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani has the potential to be one of the best in all of baseball. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. With some luck, they could get 16 WAR from Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani alone and have enough go right to fall into the divisional race, but its not the most likely outcome. 34 on our Top 100) and Mickey Moniak have played their way onto the Opening Day roster and should provide some youthful excitement for a team filled with veterans. The projections actually see the Pirates having a halfway decent offense and Endy Rodriguez has a terrific projection but the rotation still projects rather poorly, as ZiPS remains frightened of Mitch Kellers plate discipline data. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
The exercise continues this offseason. If those additions can elevate the production of their pitching staff, and Trout, Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon can stay healthy, the Angels could have a shot at toppling the Astros in the AL West. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond).
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